The Megaphone Predicts 2025 Oscars Picks
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The 97th Academy Awards are set to be held on March 2, 2025. This is the culmination of the 2024 year in cinema and has drawn controversy across the board, from criticisms of Emilia Pérez‘s portrayal of both Hispanic people and the trans community to The Brutalist‘s use of artificial intelligence. This year is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in recent memory. Stick around to read The Megaphone‘s predictions for the winners of the movie industry’s biggest night.
For each category, I will pick two films—what I think should win and what I think will win, which often diverge. There is a significant historical divide between movies loved by the Oscars and those adored by the general moviegoing public.
I’m gonna say something, and it might come off as an unpopular opinion: I like watching the Oscars. Are they frustrating, self-congratulatory, cannibalistic, out of touch, and pretentious? Absolutely. Do they routinely make genuinely baffling and often American-centric decisions on which films to recognize? Sure. And can I understand why viewership has been steadily plummeting over the past few years? Yes.
For the first thirteen years of my life, my father refused to put a TV in our house, and in spite of that, my family nurtured a lifelong passion for films, fueled by day trips to the library, 1950s creature features, and James Bond films watched on my dad’s 2009 MacBook. So Oscar Sunday meant my whole family would pack up in the car, check in at a hotel, and watch the Academy Awards.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
My Pick
The Substance
Although the Academy has made its fair share of unusual decisions in the past, it is hard for me to imagine any Academy voter not voting for The Substance. Yes, The Substance is Raunchy, grotesque, and downright disgusting at some points but the visceral reactions this movie provokes are entirely due to its makeup team. It’s already won big at the make-up artists & hair stylists guild awards, Astra Film and Creative awards, Online Film Critics Society, London Film Critic Circle, Saturn Awards,and others in the make up categories, and it would legitimately be shocking to see the academy not follow suit on this one. The Substance is the only film I have ever seen in theatres where people were actively walking out due to its gratuity. To me, that is a sign of great make-up.
My Prediction
The Substance – Dir. Coralie Fargeat
Makeup by Pierre-Olivier Persin
I was deeply surprised that a movie as visceral, grotesque, gratuitous, intense, and awesome as The Substance has been so widely embraced by the Academy. This is like if Cronenberg’s The Fly was nominated for Best Picture—not that I’m complaining. Cronenberg’s magnum opus is a masterpiece of the body horror genre, and if you’ve seen the last thirty minutes of The Substance, you’ll know why I picked this. Fargeat creates a hideous, grotesque, vomit-inducing but ultimately achingly human piece of body horror. It is through its practical effects and makeup that The Substance manifests its central, fleshy horror.
Best Original Score
My Pick
The Brutalist
Admittedly, it’s been a hot minute since I’ve seen Dune: Part Two, and I do think it was a big snub, but I believe a great score should really take you back to your seat in the theater, immersing you in the grit and gristle of the film. No film this year on this list does that better than Daniel Blumberg’s score for The Brutalist. The triumphant, monolithic brass-heavy composition is perfect for the film. It captures the wonder and majesty but also the horror and powerlessness of the immigrant experience. It actually brings to mind the heavy, heaving brass of 2022’s winner, Volker Bertelmann’s All Quiet on the Western Front.
My Prediction
Conclave
Upon listening to the soundtrack for Conclave—which isn’t something I normally do with instrumental music—I wouldn’t be upset if it won. The Conclave soundtrack is indeed subtle, but also atmospheric, sheer, and suspenseful. It very much fits the quietly threatening vibe of the film. The high, piercing strings are formal and archaic, but raw and true as well. Conclave didn’t leave much of an impact on me, but I wouldn’t be upset if it took home the Oscar.
Best Cinematography
My Pick
The Brutalist
A particular favorite example of this occurs near the beginning of the film, where Lazlo Toth emerges from the drenched, dank bowels of the ship bound for America. It is intimate, claustrophobic, and, at times, suffocating—and as the camera bobs down to reveal the Statue of Liberty upside down, descending from the heavens, there is a moment of almost euphoric triumph.
My Prediction
The Brutalist
I can see this going to The Brutalist this year, and honestly, that’s a pretty good pick. The visual identity of The Brutalist is, in my mind, almost monolithic and liminal in its terror. Cinematographer Lol Crawley uses motion and dynamism to create a truly visceral and intimate but also claustrophobic take on this film.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
My Pick
Wicked – Ariana Grande
Honestly, I’d welcome Ariana winning for this role. I think her performance is really special—it’s nuanced but also a little bit of a caricature. Everyone knows a Glinda in their life, but at the same time, there’s no one quite like this Glinda. She’s equal parts frustrating and likable, a truly difficult balance to strike, but Ariana Grande pulls it off extremely well.
My Prediction
Wicked – Ariana Grande
Ariana Grande’s performance in Wicked is at once a portrayal of an archetype but also deeply nuanced, raw, and genuine. It’s a performance that is both irritating and endearing, showing that Grande has great promise as an actress. Although her competitors—Felicity Jones in The Brutalist and Isabella Rossellini in Conclave—give wonderful performances, they also aren’t given a lot of time to shine (especially Rossellini, who has a whopping eight minutes in Conclave).
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
My Pick
Kieran Culkin- A Real Pain
I’m quite a big fan of Kieran Culkin’s work in Succession, and he shows off even more of his acting chops in Jesse Eisenberg’s A Real Pain. Culkin plays Benji, an extroverted and charismatic but emotionally damaged drifter who makes a pilgrimage to Poland with his cousin to honor their recently deceased grandmother. Culkin embodies the nuances and subtleties of the character in a way that makes you feel toward him just as his cousin does—exasperated and irritated but also charmed and intrigued. There are a couple of scenes in this movie where Culkin is able to communicate unfathomable pain with just a glance or a physical motion.
It’s for this reason that, if it were up to me, the golden statue would be going to Roman Roy, hands down.
My Prediction
Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain
Culkin has already picked up a steady stream of awards at the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice, which—if those are any indicators—suggests the Academy and I might actually agree for once.
Best Visual Effects
My Pick
Dune: Part Two
Not to disparage the competitors, but I think what Dune: Part Two does is a lot more impressive than the visual effects in its competitors. Dune doesn’t just create visual effects that look good; it creates visual effects with identity, style, flair, and aplomb. There is a very specific aesthetic of cosmic realism that one associates with the Dune films, and I think that for that reason, it’s more than worthy of the golden statue.
My Prediction
Dune: Part Two
This is actually a pretty stacked year for visual effects between Better Man, the underseen but apparently quite good Robbie Robertson biopic, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, the Xenomorph’s return in Alien: Romulus, and the sci-fi epic Dune: Part Two. The Academy does have a history of giving these nominations to Planet of the Apes films, which have always showcased impressive CGI.
And I’m gonna say something that might get my colleague and good friend Linsey Moore to kill me—visually, Wicked is not that good. Wonderful movie, but pretty stale and bland for many parts of it; I don’t think visually this film deserves much.
I’m gonna have to predict Dune: Part Two to win here. The Dune films achieve a lot with their sense of visual identity. I think my favorite example of this is how they use visual effects to make the spaceships look foreign and liminal, almost terrifying in how unknowable the engineers behind them are. The visual effects in Dune: Part Two bring life to the unadaptable and do so in a way that bucks the trend of sci-fi films. From the scale of the sandworms to the dank, humid corridors of Giedi Prime, the visuals in this film do a lot.
Best Costume Design
My Pick
Wicked
Wicked’s costume designs are the exact aesthetic of perplexing and endearing that you would want from a film set in Oz. They add both narrative significance and color and dynamism to the film.
My Prediction
Wicked
Wicked’s got this one in the bag. It does something really incredible with its costume designs. It both immerses the viewer and pays homage to the simple, fairy tale style of the 1939 classic while expanding the costumes into more complex, established pieces. It’s a truly masterful piece of worldbuilding and more than enough to deserve the Oscar.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
My Pick
A Real Pain
I think both screenplay awards this year are some of the most contentious. In this category, you have Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold’s decade-spanning, heart-wrenching character study of fictional architects with the feel of a great American novel. You have a screwball comedy for the Oligarch age in Sean Baker’s Anora, a riveting drama based off of the 1972 Munich Olympics crisis and a study of grief, mental illness and family in the wake of intergenerational trauma. For me, personally, I believe writing a screenplay is doing a lot with a little. Being able to communicate volumes about plot and character is increasingly subtle and often running up against the barrier of runtime. As much as I enjoyed the literary quality of Carbet Fastvold’s and fat old epic, and the wit and heartbreak of Baker’s Anora, I would choose A Real Pain. Jesse Eisenberg’s screenplay is largely dialogue driven,
My Prediction
Anora
Although I would’ve given it to A Real Pain, I think Anora is a good and well-deserved pick. Most recently, Anora won the Writers Guild award for Best Original Screenplay on February 15. Anora is intense, witty, profane, charismatic, and does a great job at worming her way into your heart, thanks in no small part due to Mikey Madison’s performance. Anora is hilarious, heartbreaking, witty, and charming, and for that I would find it to be perfectly serviceable to win the award.
Best Editing
My Pick
Anora
I spent some time in high school making films, and I learned quite a bit from that process: how to work with others, how to deal with teachers that are ghoulish, and how to focus a camera. But one of the things that I never appreciated until I made films is how hard it is to shoot a conversation in an interesting way, and how hard it is to stitch that together in an interesting way. And what do you know, the bulk of Anora is just people arguing- (and it’s awesome).
My Prediction
Emilia Pérez
It is with a solemn and heavy heart that I make this announcement; Emilia Pérez is going to win something on Oscars Sunday, maybe several things. If it is anything, I think that is probably the most fitting, even if it’s not the most well done in the category.
Best Picture
My Pick
The Brutalist
The Brutalist is a bizarre movie- mammoth in length and scale, subtle at some points but with moments bordering on the surreal. There are some who say it is as if it’s been manufactured for award season success. After all, the academy loves its stories about the American dream as much as it loves movies about making movies. But I, personally, didn’t see a movie this year that was as thought provoking and stimulating as The Brutalist. The Brutalist features a full spectrum of fantastic performances, masterful filmmaking, a good screenplay, and wonderful special effects. One leaves the film believing that an entire volume could be written about deciphering its meaning and its themes. It’s also an undeniably audacious film, bringing to mind the traditions of New Hollywood and even before that.
My Prediction
Anora
It is going to be a little bizarre to see Sean Baker, a director who just years ago was making low budget indie films, be a best picture winner, but it will be extremely satisfying nonetheless.. Anora is a worthy addition, a fascinating tribute to the screwball comedy of the thirties in the oligarch age. It is anchored by masterful performance, superb editing, and a truly wonderful screenplay. Not a bad pick at all from the academy.
Best Adapted Screenplay
My Pick
Sing Sing
Sing Sing is a film that didn’t get the attention it deserved. It’s truly a heart-rending story, made even more impactful by the fact that the actors are portrayed by the real people the movie is about . Sing Sing is vulnerable, genuine, and real. It’s every honest and heart-wrenching depiction of the inhumanity of prisons and redemption found in art. This is the kind of film that can change minds and lives.
My Prediction
Conclave
I did not care for Conclave in particular. While I did see it in a theatre with Southwestern’s own reverend Ronald Swain and had a lot of appreciation for director Edward Bergert, this film didn’t really leave as much of an impact on me as I expected, but it has won a bevy of awards, and I would have to guess that the academy will likely give the statue to Edward Bergert’s adaptation of Robert Harris’s novel.
Best Animated Feature
My Pick
The Wild Robot
In my mind, The Wild Robot is the perfect pick for Best Animated Feature. It is an achievement in narrative and furthers the medium for animation as a whole. The film combines CG animation with a painted, hand-crafted style to achieve a very dynamic and stylized look throughout the film. It’s also a rare pick that is as popular as it is good.
My Prediction
Inside Out 2
I don’t think it’s a secret that the academy doesn’t take the animated features category seriously. While I would appreciate the academy giving the nod to a Latvian film, it is likely that they’ll just give it to Inside Out 2 and call it a day. As host Jimmy Kimmel said last year, “this is the category you let your kids fill in for you.” While they might make the right call, it seems like Inside Out 2 is kind of a default pick for this category, and I think that would be unfortunate. I enjoyed Inside Out 2 quite a bit more than I expected and thought it was a worthy successor, as well as the first Pixar film in a while that really scratched my head, but I don’t think it’s the most boundary-breaking and creative animated film nominated this year.
